Super Bowl 58: The underrated matchup that may decide whether Chiefs or 49ers hoist Lombardi Trophy in 2024

Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs has plenty of stories to tell. From Brock Purdy being the last pick in the draft to the Super Bowl in two years to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes vying for their third Super Bowl title in five years, the Super Bowl will have plenty of excitement.

However, the 49ers pass-catchers and the Chiefs pass defense are the untold story of Super Bowl LVIII, and it's the matchup that could decide the game for both teams. 

How Mahomes and Purdy play are paramount; ditto with how Reid and Kyle Shanahan call the game. But the 49ers pass-catchers against the Chiefs pass defense will be crucial toward determining a world champion. Let's take a look at the matchup:

49ers pass-catchers

The combination of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are arguably the best quartet of pass-catchers in football. The four top pass-catchers on the 49ers combined for 3,818 receiving yards and 27 receiving touchdowns. Where all four make their mark is yards after the catch. 

The 49ers lead the NFL with an average of 6.5 yards after the catch per reception and yards per route run of 1.88. San Francisco is fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch with 2,189 and lead the league in yards per catch at 13.6. 

Which brings the quartet of McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle back into focus. McCaffrey is arguably the best pass-catching running back in football, finishing second in the NFL in receiving yards (564), first in receiving touchdowns (seven), third in air yards per target (1.84), and 10th in yards after the catch (461). He's a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and create space with Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle running routes. 

Samuel is a yards-after-the-catch machine. He led all wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception at 8.8 this year and has led the league at his position in each of the past four years. Samuel leads all NFL wide receivers in yards after the catch (2,663) and yards after the catch per reception (9.9) since his rookie season in 2019. 

Aiyuk had 81.3% of his catches for first downs or touchdowns this season, first in the NFL. He was third in yards per route run (3.1) and second in yards per catch (17.9). He finished with 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns, adding a deep-ball element to an already potent pass-catching group. 

Kittle led all tight ends in receiving yards (1,020) and yards per catch (15.7) this season, while having 483 yards after the catch (third in NFL amongst tight ends). This quartet of pass-catchers will be the toughest challenge for the Chiefs pass defense all year.

Chiefs pass defense

The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game (176.5) and passing touchdowns allowed (19), but the advanced numbers paint an even better picture. Opposing quarterbacks targeting the Chiefs completed 61.2% of their passes for 3,001 yards for 19 touchdowns to eight interceptions for an 83.6 passer rating (eighth in NFL). 

The Chiefs allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt, good for third in the league. Kansas City was eighth in opposing quarterback completion percentage, but just 27th in interceptions. If the Chiefs had more takeaways, the pass defense would get significantly more credit as a vital part of the No. 2 overall unit in the league. 

L'Jarius Sneed led the NFL in yards allowed per target (4.7) this season, as opposing quarterbacks completed 48.3% of their passes with zero touchdowns and a 45.2 passer rating targeting him. Sneed only allowed one touchdown this season: when Josh Allen threw a touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir in the AFC divisional round. 

Trent McDuffie is one of the best blitzing defensive backs in the league. His nine quarterback hits this season were the most by any cornerback in any season since the stat was first tracked in 2006. His 16 pressures also led the league, while his three sacks tied for first in the NFL. McDuffie allowed just two pass touchdowns on the year, even if he had zero interceptions. 

Why is McDuffie blitzing critical? The Chiefs have the fourth-highest blitz rate (37%) and third-fewest yards per attempt (5.9) when blitzing this season and have the third-most plays with a defensive back blitzing (108) and the fewest yards per attempt allowed (4.9) with a defensive back blitzing this season.

The blitzing could be feast or famine for the Chiefs if they take this approach. Purdy ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per attempt and passing touchdowns when pressured but bottom five in Interceptions thrown. His 8.0 yards per attempt against the blitz is second in the NFL with 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

The Chiefs have the pass defense to counter the 49ers if they can prevent Purdy from getting the ball out of his hands and make the tackle when the pass-catchers do get the ball. 

If Kansas City can contain San Francisco's pass-catchers, the Chiefs will be the first repeat champions since the 2003-04 New England Patriots.