What to expect with the start of NFL free agency

Here’s what to expect for the week ahead:

▪ The deals will start coming in Monday at noon, when the league’s negotiating window opens. By the time the league year starts on Wednesday, most of the top players will already be snapped up. Most of the top free agents agree to deals without meeting their new teams face to face.

But deals can’t be signed until 4 p.m. Wednesday, and nothing is official until ink meets paper. Last year, the Raiders verbally agreed to a deal with Jimmy Garoppolo, but revised it significantly when Garoppolo arrived at the team facility and the team was dismayed at the progress of his broken foot.

▪ Remember to take most initial reports with a grain of salt. Buccaneers receiver Mike Evans signed what was reported to be a two-year deal worth $52 million and $35 million guaranteed. But it’s really valued at $48 million and $29 million fully guaranteed — $23 million this year and $6 million next year, which really makes it “one year and we’ll see” for Evans, who turns 31 in August.

▪ As in most years, most of the top free agents are getting re-signed before hitting the market. The Bengals and Colts used the franchise tag on receivers Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman, while the Buccaneers re-signed Evans. The top pass rushers (Brian Burns, Josh Allen) and the top defensive backs (Jaylon Johnson, Antoine Winfield, L’Jarius Sneed) got the tag as well, though Sneed is available on the trade market. Hunter Henry, the top tight end, re-signed with the Patriots on Friday.

▪ Among the top players available: QB Kirk Cousins, DT Chris Jones, DT Christian Wilkins, QB Russell Wilson, DT Leonard Williams, DE Danielle Hunter, QB Baker Mayfield, LB Patrick Queen, WR Calvin Ridley, and S Justin Simmons. The Seahawks are working on re-signing Williams, and it would be a surprise if the Chiefs don’t re-sign Jones to a massive deal. Same for the Buccaneers and Mayfield, though the sides don’t appear to be close on financial terms.

â–ª A few intriguing receivers will be free agents, including Ridley, Gabe Davis, Tyler Boyd, K.J. Osborn, Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel, and Michael Thomas, while Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, and Sutton are potential cuts. Big fireworks could come in trades, with Justin Jefferson, Diontae Johnson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amari Cooper among the possibilities.

▪ At quarterback, a league source said the Falcons are “all-in” on Cousins, which makes sense. They tried the young QB route the last two years with Desmond Ridder, but finished 7-10 each time and wasted a talented roster. Cousins is by far the best veteran available, even though he’ll be 36 in August and is coming off a torn Achilles’. He also seems like a good scheme fit with new Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who came from the Rams.

▪ Wilson visited the Giants and Steelers over the weekend, and he makes sense for teams who want to win now but have a shaky starting QB (the Vikings and Raiders could get involved, too). Justin Fields is also available in a trade, though his market hasn’t materialized. Jacoby Brissett is arguably getting more interest than both as a bridge starter and mentor for a young QB. A league source said the Patriots’ interest in Brissett is real — Patriots OC Alex Van Pelt loved working with Brissett in Cleveland two years ago, when Brissett started 11 games in place of Deshaun Watson, and the Patriots view Brissett as a good locker room guy who is all about football. Devin and Jason McCourty also are said to love Brissett and would vouch for his return to New England. But the Broncos, Bears, and Commanders have expressed varying interest in Brissett, and the Falcons could turn to Brissett, not Fields, if they don’t land Cousins.

▪ Though most teams that need a quarterback are looking to find one in the draft, 21 teams need to sign at least one backup. It’s going to be quite a game of musical chairs for players including Fields, Wilson, Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs, and Tyler Huntley.

▪ A handful of positions are loaded with talent and the markets likely will be slow — safety, running back, and off-ball linebacker. Running back and linebacker have been devalued for years, but safety is joining them because of the prevalence of two-high-safety defenses, which diminish the need for a rangy, athletic center fielder.

▪ The top left tackles available are at least 30 years old — Charles Leno (32), Tyron Smith (33), George Fant (31), Andrus Peat (30), and Donovan Smith (30). At right tackle are two younger players who have disappointed, the Bengals’ Jonah Williams (26) and the Jets’ Mekhi Becton (24).

▪ There won’t be much available at edge rusher, with the Vikings’ Hunter and the 49ers’ Chase Young by far the best of the bunch. Mack, 33, could shake loose as well. The other top ones available are D.J. Wonnum, Jonathan Greenard, and Za’Darius Smith.

▪ And there won’t be much available at cornerback. The Patriots may have to spend more than they want to retain Myles Bryant, who could be one of the more coveted players available due to his age (26) and versatility. Ahkello Witherspoon, Kenny Moore, Kendall Fuller, and Stephon Gilmore are also free agents.

WILSON A WASTE

Broncos got little

for investment in QB

Russell Wilson signed what was considered a player-friendly contract with the Broncos two years ago. But his contract is potentially why Wilson is out of a job and may never be a full-time starter again.

The Broncos released him this past week even though they owe him $39 million in 2024, because they wanted to avoid a $37 million salary in 2025, which would have become guaranteed next week. Without that guarantee vesting a year ahead of time, Wilson might still be the Broncos’ quarterback, since they’re paying him this year regardless.

Still, Wilson walks away from Denver with $85 million over two seasons, and $124 million including his 2024 salary.

â–ª The Wilson trade will go down as one of the worst ever for the Broncos, who gave two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a handful of productive players to the Seahawks. But the Seahawks just cut their losses on one of their own brutal trades, releasing safety Jamal Adams after four mediocre seasons. Adams cost the Seahawks two first-round picks plus $50 million over four years, was a major liability in pass coverage, and missed nearly as many games to injury (33) as he played (34).

ETC.

Changes ahead

in AFC East

Really liked the Dolphins’ signing of tight end Jonnu Smith. The Patriots couldn’t figure out how to use him in 2021-22, but Smith had a nice bounce-back season in Atlanta, catching a career-high 50 passes for 582 yards and three touchdowns. Smith has always been a good catch-and-run tight end, and he finished third among tight ends in 2023 in average yards after the catch (7.2). Smith could see a lot of open spaces on a Dolphins offense that has speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside.

▪ The Bills will get younger, especially on defense. Cornerback Tre’Davious White (29), safety Jordan Poyer (32), and center Mitch Morse (31) were released, and receiver Gabe Davis (24) and safety Micah Hyde (33) won’t be re-signed. While these are framed in media reports as salary-cap moves, they’re really about cutting costs, as this past week’s releases saved more than $37 million. The Bills were one of the top cash spenders last year at $278 million, or about $50 million more than the salary cap, and owners rarely green-light that kind of spending in consecutive years.

These guys came to play

A few notes about snap counts in 2023:

▪ Only 19 offensive players participated in 100 percent of their team’s snaps, and all were linemen, including Patriots center David Andrews. Browns guard Wyatt Teller wasn’t one of the 19, but he led the league with 1,187 offensive snaps.

â–ª Among quarterbacks, Jared Goff led the way at 99.75 percent, missing three snaps all season. Baker Mayfield (99.73 percent) also missed just three snaps. Jordan Love, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Sam Howell, and Tua Tagovailoa were the others over 95 percent.

â–ª The top offensive skill players: Buccaneers TE Cade Otton (96.5 percent), Colts WR Alec Pierce (95), Raiders WR Davante Adams (92.1), Jets WR Garrett Wilson (91.5), and Panthers WR Adam Thielen (91).

▪ The top running backs: Buccaneers’ Rachaad White (78 percent), 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey (76.2), Jaguars’ Travis Etienne (73.5), Cowboys’ Tony Pollard (70.1), and Bengals’ Joe Mixon (69.1).

▪ Only two defensive players participated in 100 percent of snaps, and both were on the Giants — linebacker Bobby Okereke and safety Xavier McKinney. Eight others played at least 99 percent of snaps.

â–ª Patriots linebacker Jahlani Tavai had one of the most unique seasons in the NFL, contributing on all four downs with 837 defensive snaps (74 percent) and 359 on special teams (79 percent). No other player with 300 special teams snaps played more than 550 defensive snaps. Tavai had a breakout season with 16 starts, two interceptions, a sack, and 110 tackles.

▪ The Patriots’ Brenden Schooler and Chris Board were two of the four players leaguewide to play at least 400 special teams snaps, and they led the NFL with 88.9 percent participation.

Smart tag on Dugger

A question on many people’s minds this past week: Why would the Patriots place the rarely used transition tag on safety Kyle Dugger? It guarantees Dugger a one-year salary of $13.815 million if he signs the tag, and gives the Patriots the right to match any free agent offer, but doesn’t provide the Patriots compensation if Dugger signs elsewhere. The Patriots were the first team in four years to use the transition tag, and just the sixth team in the last 11 years.

But there were two reasons it made smart business for the Patriots. One, it gives them more leverage on a long-term deal with Dugger — $13.815 million is now the starting point, instead of $17.12 million on the franchise tag, or even more had Dugger reached unrestricted free agency.

Two, the transition tag fires a warning shot to the other 31 teams — don’t bother offering Dugger, because we’re just going to match your contract. The Patriots have among the most cap space in the league and are well positioned to match any offer to Dugger, and the transition tag broadcasts their intentions to the league.

The other teams will be discouraged from negotiating seriously with Dugger, because they know they are ultimately just negotiating the deal for the Patriots (poison pills have been outlawed). In turn, the lack of suitors should help the Patriots get a more team-friendly deal.

Circus time

The NFL Players Association’s anonymous player surveys are incredibly insightful because they offer concrete examples of how teams really treat players (e.g. how the Bengals can’t get hot water in their locker room, the Patriots have a shoddy weight room, and the Chargers charge players for child care).

In the same vein, the comments from tight end Dalton Schultz this past week about the circus-like atmosphere that envelops the Cowboys were incredibly illuminating. Schultz just finished his first year in Houston after five in Dallas and was blown away by the differences.

“You think it’s normal, and then you come to a place like this,” Schultz said on the “Pat McAfee Show”. “There’s people literally going on tours while you’re lifting in the weight room. They’ve got a one-way mirror for people to look in. It’s literally a zoo. There’s people tapping on the glass, trying to get people’s attention while they’re doing power cleans or whatever.

“That’s the brand that they’ve built, that’s what Jerry Jones likes, that’s the way they run things, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just you don’t realize how many eyeballs and how much that can maybe distract from stuff in the locker room being in the facility, until you go somewhere else and you’re like, ‘Holy crap, there’s none of that.’ ”

A travesty of justice that former Chiefs coach Britt Reid, son of Andy Reid, got his meager three-year prison sentence (he was facing seven) commuted after just 16 months this past week by Missouri’s governor, Mike Parson, allowing Reid to finish his sentence at home. In 2021, Reid got drunk at the Chiefs’ facility and slammed his pickup truck into the back of a car at high speed, sending a 5-year-old girl into a coma and giving her a lifetime of challenges. Parson never explained why Reid got to go home early, and the Chiefs aren’t commenting. “It’s because the Governor of Missouri is a Chiefs fan, went to the Super Bowl, went to the after-parties, went to the parade and the rally, and even has a Chiefs tattoo,” attorney Tom Porto told Yahoo! Sports . . . The NFL needs to reconsider its weather policy now that some fans who attended the Chiefs-Dolphins playoff game in January may need amputations, per Fox 4 in Kansas City. The NFL prides itself on playing in all kinds of weather, but the temperatures that night — a windchill of minus-27 at kickoff — were too dangerous for fans. The NFL will move games for hurricanes and thunderstorms, and should do the same for extreme cold . . . The NFL Players Association has a new president in Lions linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin, who was elected Friday. He replaces JC Tretter, who served two two-year terms . . . The Patriots are eligible to start their offseason program April 1 since they have a new head coach. Teams with returning coaches may start April 15.

Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.