What we know about Jim Harbaugh’s future, Michigan football, the NFL

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Seasons change, but at Michigan, offseason drama boils down to a perennial question: Where does Jim Harbaugh want to be?

The only person who can answer that is Harbaugh, and even he might not be sure. After leading Michigan to its first national championship in a quarter century, Harbaugh once again is exploring a return to the NFL. Michigan is fighting to retain him, but that appears to be an uphill battle. With the news that Harbaugh interviewed for head-coaching jobs with the Los Angeles Chargers and Atlanta Falcons, Michigan is bracing for the possibility that Harbaugh’s long-speculated departure becomes a reality.

Here’s what we know about Harbaugh and the NFL.

NFL options coming into focus

Harbaugh interviewed with the Chargers and Falcons this week, as confirmed by both teams. The Chargers interview was no surprise: Harbaugh played for the franchise at the end of his career, and his name emerged almost immediately after Brandon Staley’s firing in December. The Falcons interview came out of left field. Interviewing with multiple teams is another sign Harbaugh is serious about returning to the NFL and willing to pitch himself to NFL teams rather than sitting back and waiting for an offer.

Though the Falcons have an intriguing core of young players headlined by running back Bijan Robinson, the Chargers job is viewed as the more natural fit for Harbaugh. The Chargers have a franchise quarterback heading into his prime in Justin Herbert, an enormously talented player who could use a coach like Harbaugh to unlock his full potential. The Chargers are hiring a general manager, which gives them the flexibility to pair Harbaugh with a GM like Baltimore Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz or Indianapolis Colts assistant GM Ed Dodds.

The Las Vegas Raiders are another team that has been mentioned as a possible destination, but they have a compelling internal candidate in Antonio Pierce and haven’t waded into the Harbaugh sweepstakes as of yet. All eyes are on the Chargers, who continue to meet with candidates and interviewed former Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel on Thursday.

Unfinished business in NFL

Harbaugh said as much after interviewing with the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 and leaving Minnesota without a job offer.

“For me, it went back to Feb. 3, 2013, when our team in San Francisco got within 5 yards, one play, of winning the Super Bowl,” Harbaugh said two years ago on Michigan’s “In the Trenches” podcast. “Two years after that, I left the 49ers to come to Michigan and signed a seven-year contract. The seven years were up, and I wondered if that was the time, or if there would be a time, to go back and finish that.”

Now that Harbaugh has completed his ninth season at Michigan, perhaps the time has come. Harbaugh said he was ready to close the door on returning to the NFL after his interview with the Vikings, but clearly, he wasn’t. The door is open again, in part because Michigan just achieved the goal Harbaugh circled when he returned in 2022.

“Winning football’s ultimate prize, the Super Bowl, that’s great,” Harbaugh said in the same interview. “Let’s go win college football’s most ultimate prize, and that’s the national championship. That’s what we’re completely focused on and want to do.”

Contract talks have been complicated

A few months ago, Harbaugh referred to his contract negotiations with Michigan as a “3 1/2-year thing.” That was a telling statement considering he is about to finish the second year of a five-year contract he signed in 2022.

In Harbaugh’s mind, it seems, his contract negotiations from 2021 never really ended, even if he has signed two deals at Michigan since then. The first was the incentive-laden contract that cut his guaranteed pay in half. The second was his current deal that guaranteed him $8.2 million this season, which ranked 12th among FBS coaches in USA Today’s salary database. Though Harbaugh’s total pay will surpass $11 million with bonuses from winning the Big Ten and national championships, his base pay puts him behind Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Penn State’s James Franklin and other coaches with lesser resumes.

There was talk of renegotiating Harbaugh’s contract after the 2022 season, but that didn’t happen, in part because Harbaugh was facing a potential Level I charge from the NCAA for his alleged failure to cooperate with an investigation into recruiting violations from the COVID-19 dead period. Contract talks picked up midseason but were halted by the Connor Stalions investigation. By the time talks resumed, the NFL hiring cycle was approaching and Harbaugh was preparing his team for the Rose Bowl. Thus, the saga continues.

It’s not about the money

Harbaugh’s proposed deal at Michigan would make him the highest-paid coach in the Big Ten and one of the highest-paid coaches in the country alongside Georgia’s Kirby Smart. The dollars have never been the issue. At the core, Harbaugh’s negotiations at Michigan have been about trust, security and commitment.

It’s standard for coaching contracts to include provisions that allow the school to terminate a coach for cause for breaking NCAA rules or otherwise tarnishing the reputation of the university. Harbaugh’s current deal allows the university to fire him for cause if the NCAA or Big Ten determines he committed a Level I or Level II violation or if it’s found a violation occurred as a result of his failure to appropriately supervise the program.

Given Michigan’s ongoing issues with the NCAA, Harbaugh is understandably wary about signing a deal that could be voided at any time. Michigan is understandably wary about offering blanket immunity. The impasse isn’t insurmountable, but it’s one more hurdle to clear if Harbaugh is going to stay at Michigan.

A widespread belief at Michigan is that Harbaugh will go where he feels the most wanted. He has said a version of that himself, saying he wants to coach at Michigan as long as the school wants him there. Michigan officials, including athletic director Warde Manuel, have made public gestures to throw their support behind Harbaugh. A big question for Harbaugh and Michigan is whether the public sentiments match the mood behind the scenes.

Harbaugh loves Michigan

It’s easy to lose sight of this amid the constant NFL flirtations, but anyone who’s around Harbaugh can see that Michigan is a special place for him. That doesn’t mean he won’t leave. It just means he has two competing pulls: his desire to coach at the highest level of the sport versus his connection with his alma mater and the feelings attached to winning a national championship at Michigan.

“Some day when they throw dirt over the top of me, if somebody who is eulogizing me, who was on this team or one of my teammates when I was playing at Michigan, if they would simply say, ‘He was a Michigan man,’ that would mean everything,” Harbaugh said after the national championship game.

Since 2022, Harbaugh has been open about his willingness to listen to NFL offers. If he leaves, Michigan has a natural replacement in offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who coached the Wolverines to four victories while Harbaugh was suspended. What was true in the past is true now: Harbaugh marches to his own beat, and he’ll need to find an NFL team that’s willing to take him for what he is.

Maybe this is the year it finally happens. For now, Michigan is back in a familiar spot: waiting for the chips to fall.

(Top photo: Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)